OutCampaign.org
5th May, 2007

The Singularity

In many ways, we are today reaching a critical juncture in the history of our species. We have seen more progress (technologically, politically, and socially) in the last few hundred years alone than in most of the rest of human history. Are we reaching a period of exponential growth — a point of no return? What does this unprecedented progress mean for our future?

In his book The Singularity Is Near, Author Ray Kurzweil popularizes the idea of a so-called Techological Singularity — a theorized time during which technological and scientific progress reaches a point of exponential growth, and accelerates beyond our capacity to predict it. Critics have called the singularity a blind application of statistics, and have made the point that this may well be a problem too complicated — with far too many contributing factors — to be modeled mathematically.

The recent rapid acceleration of progress (technological and otherwise) has been attributed mainly to a few key paradigm shifts — The Italian renaissance, the Industrial Revolution, etc. — but just as important in this discussion are the ramifications of the paradigm shifts that may be borne out of this ‘singularity.’

As scientific progress advances at an ever-increasing rate, will society’s perturbation with it do the same? For the sake of an example, let’s look at the recent debate over stem cell research. President Bush, as one of his first acts in office, made illegal any government funding earmarked for the production or perpetuation of embryonic stem cell lines.

This delivered a great blow to an area of research that shows much promise in curing many diseases, and potentially saving millions of lives. The reason for this, essentially, is that the President was concerned about the destruction of potential human life (a group of ~100 cells in a petry dish). Since then, he has thwarted (by means of a veto) several similar attempts to pass what seem to be wholly reasonable bills through congress.

Why?

Part of the blame can be placed on politicians and the mainstream media for their blatant misrepresentation (whether intentional or not) of the implications of stem cell research, and what it entails. It can also be explained, however, by the inability of our cultural institutions (religious, moral, etc.) to keep up with scientific progress. This problem will likely be exacerbated as more misunderstandings arise from the ever-widening chasm between scientific and social progress.

The emerging field of bioethics attempts to address some of these problems. As biotechnology such as genetically modified crops become more and more commonplace, it has become necessary to look the ethical dilemmas that sometimes arise through the lens of the scientific outlook. Scientists must play a central role in such debates — shedding light on complicated topics that may otherwise be used simply as pornography for political masturbation.

Beyond the debate surrounding stem cells, there is the issue of nuclear arms. In an age when the total annihilation of the human race is so readily within our grasp, it seems to me deeply troubling that there exist today groups of people who, if given the opportunity, would gladly initiate a nuclear conflict with the United States.

It is for this reason that Radical Islam poses an immediate and very real threat to the human species as a whole. Not only do the ideologues of the Muslim world harbour a fervent hatred for the country with the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, but they also — because of their religious beliefs — do not fear retaliation. According to the Qur’an, any Muslim who dies in battle with the infidels is given the status of shahid (martyr), who in the paradise will receive 72 virgins and a special place next to Allah.

And so we are at a crossroads. We can either use our technology to improve life and advance the species, or, as Carl Sagan put it, “squander our 15 billion year heritage in meaningless self-destruction.”

Are we on the shore of a vast ocean of prosperity — a world free from hunger, disease, and oppression — or the brink of something much, much worse?

Only time will tell.

Responses

“It can also be explained, however, by inability of our cultural institutions (religious, moral, etc.) to keep up with scientific progress.”

This reminds me of an incident when I confronted once of my close friends (a Mormon) on the church’s resistance to change. I asked her how such an institution, the purpose of which is to provide a better means of living for all people (who accept its doctrine), could remain attached to ancient ideas and prejudices when the rest of society is trying to move beyond such ways of thinking — regarding topics such as stem cell research, homosexuality, and others. Her only reply was that even though society has changed, “God” and his will has never changed.

It seems disheartening to me that such an argument could be used to keep humanity in a socioculturally “backward” state when the modernized world is dynamic and ever-changing: anything but backward. Even more alarming is how casually politicians cite the bible and the “word of God” as a means of promoting (or derailing) legislation. It seems the ideal of “separation of church and state” in western politics may always remain an unrealized dream.

In the short-run, it’s obvious that progress of all kinds will continue to accelerate because the marginal societal benefit of such breakthroughs outweighs conservative opposition. Even though certain endeavors may be delayed, or even halted (such as stem cell research in the U.S.), changing political agendas and shifts in the balance of party power serve to remove such short-term obstacles as presidential vetoes.

When analyzing the future of humanity over a much broader interval, we enter unexplored territory. People who lived in the Dark Ages never would have conceived that such a world as the current one we live in could ever exist. Does this mean that in years to come that civilization will manifest itself into yet another entirely unrecognizable form? Most likely, yes.

However, as is already becoming apparent, ongoing advancement will breed a degree of sectionalism within humanity itself (those who embrace change vs. those who fear it). Party politics of democratic nations have already manifested such sectionalism into a current issue. Although party politics can only serve to impede social and technological growth, long-run rivalries may give spawn to a powerful division within civilization as a whole that could halt the growth of society altogether.

Ongoing advancements will also pose a variety of other new complications for humanity to cope with. People of the Dark Ages had a wide array of problems that simply are no longer issues (nomadic/barbarian invasion, inadequate medical care, etc.). Conversely, there are difficulties we face everyday that are unique to our time (party politics, pollution, overpopulation). Once humanity runs into a problem that is simply too immense for the social/technological arsenal to cope with, then advancement can be expected taper off (or even move in reverse).

This theory can be categorized a an “S-curve” representation of human advancement: a long period of little growth, a period of rapid acceleration of social and technological change, and finally a leveling-off. A much more bleak opinion would be the idea of cyclical human advancement. Reminiscent of the Big Crunch theory in universal astronomy (although unrelated in their derivation), cyclical advancement would imply a periodic relationship between human progress and time: society advances at a rapid rate to its peak, some sort of cataclysmic event occurs, and humanity is forced back into the stone ages. Nevertheless, the unlikeliness of such an event, which would have to be immense enough to pull civilization back thousands of years, could ever occur is obvious.

Thus, we are left in the same state of confusion and wonder with regards to the future of humanity as we are when thinking about the fate of the entire universe.

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